“I think it was the right political timing for the NDP, but this is encouraging behavior of any political party in our current first past the post electoral system,” Political Science professor Cara Camcastle told DESIBUZZCanada. “Parties want to retain power, win a majority, and not have to negotiate with other parties. Polls suggest the NDP are riding a wave of popularity just now, but  numbers of cases are continuing to grow and with the colder weather there could be a resurgence of the virus that might even require another lockdown or more drastic restrictions and could put a dent into the level of popularity of the NDP. “

By R. Paul Dhillon – Editor-Founder DESIBUZZCanada

SURREY -BC Premier John Horgan announced what had been an open secret that a provincial general election will occur this fall in the middle of a pandemic. The election writ has been dropped and the voters head to the polls on October 24, a week before Halloween.

“I have just met with the Lieutenant Governor and she has agreed with my request to hold an election on October 24,” Horgan said Monday. “The COVID-19 pandemic has changed everything — the people of British Columbia deserve a say in the direction of our recovery and the future of our province.”

The opposition BC Liberals are already taking shots that with rising COVID-19 cases, the NDP is being opportunistic in calling the election now when they could have waited till the spring or even the fall which is when the next scheduled election is to take place. But SFU Political Science professor Cara Camcastle told DESIBUZZCanada the NDP saw an opportunity and as is the case in politics, they took it. 

“I think it was the right political timing for the NDP, but this is encouraging behavior of any political party in our current first past the post electoral system,” Camcastle said. “Parties want to retain power, win a majority, and not have to negotiate with other parties. Polls suggest the NDP are riding a wave of popularity just now, but  numbers of cases are continuing to grow and with the colder weather there could be a resurgence of the virus that might even require another lockdown or more drastic restrictions and could put a dent into the level of popularity of the NDP. “

Camcastle, whose specialty is BC politics, the role of the Green party in BC politics, party ideologies and policies, election analysis, the rise of climate change, told DESIBUZZCanada that voters are worried about COVID-19 and economic recession and they will be suspicious and cynical about the intentions of the NDP who want voters to go to the polls during a provincial state of emergency.  

Camcastle said the NDP and Liberals currently have the same number of seats while Liberals won more of the popular vote last time but election results can still put up surprises even though NDP has been topping polls lately.

“It is anyone's guess who get win more seats, but it is plausible that the NDP could win a majority, but probably by a slim margin.  Quite a few tight ridings in the last election were close.  The NDP will be trying to win back the seats they held on Vancouver Island, such as Cowichan Valley and Saanich North held by the Greens.  There are also ridings on the Lower Mainland that were previously held by the Liberals, which the Liberals could win back or could remain NDP, such as Vancouver Point Grey and Vancouver Fraserview,” she said

Whether the BC Liberals can take power depends on how the election campaign develops.

“ This election is so different from any other in that so much will be fought virtually and getting more voters to advance polls are important.  The Liberal leader needs to be better known and the Party will have to communicate their alternative vision for economic recovery clearly to voters. Because of the lack of visibility during this previous era of cooperation and less partisanship,  the Liberals will have to compensate for lack of visibility earlier and communicate their vision and their criticism of the NDP platform and quickly if more people vote in the advance polls,” Camcastle said.

And what about the Greens – how will they fare in this election?

“They lost one of their seats when Weaver stepped down and just had a change in leadership.  On the other hand, the Greens do well with voters who feel more cynical about the political process and the timing of this election feeds into this feeling of cynicism and tired of politics as usual and putting politics ahead of people,” Camcastle said.

“The Green Party can capitalize on the recent forest fires and growing awareness about climate change.  They will need to show that green jobs have a role to play in the economic recovery from COVID.  They will be fighting to hold onto seats in Vancouver Island against the NDP and build on their growing support in places like West Vancouver Sunshine Coast. Greens need to reach environmentally oriented voters who remember Horgan's support for LNG projects and Site C,” she said.

Asked how will Pandemic management change if the BC Liberals come to power, Camcastle said they would take a more decentralized and business oriented approach to COVID 19.  

“They would support small businesses, such as lowering taxes like PST  and advocate reopening parts of the province that have low case counts so that businesses affected by the pandemic could more quickly recover,” she said.

Horgan said his decision to call an election was based on the government's record during its first term. He said BC NDP minority government lasted over three years, much longer than most minority governments.

“We’ve made a lot of progress for people over the last three years. We invested in healthcare and schools. We build transit, housing and childcare centres. We eliminated the MSP—the largest middle-class tax cut in BC history—and during this pandemic, we kept people safe while staying focused on what matters,” Horgan said.

“The BC Liberals are pushing for changes that benefit the wealthy and well-connected—at your expense. We have a plan to keep you safe, and to make life better and more affordable for people. We’ve accomplished a lot on what matters most to people, and there’s a lot more work ahead of us.”

Horgan also addressed how this election will have additional public health measures informed by the Provincial Public Health officer to ensure the safety of everyone.

“Like a lot of things these days, this election is going to look different than previous ones. I know we can do it safely,” Horgan said. “There will be new opportunities for people to vote in advance or by a mail-in-ballot from the comfort of their homes.”