By Dr. Sawraj Singh

It looks like the corona virus pandemic can bring fundamental changes in the world. The post corona world can be very different than the present world. America is likely to lose its hyper power status. Russia-China axis may become the leading center of the world. China may become the leading country and Asia will become the leading continent, replacing Europe, which has maintained that status for the last two centuries. India, the South Eastern Asian countries and countries like Iran may emerge as important centers of power in a multipolar world.                                                                          

America has been the most powerful country after the Second World War. The Soviet Union was also a very powerful country. Therefore, the world became bipolar with each superpower having its own sphere of influence. After the fall of the Soviet Union, America became the only superpower in the world. It could also be called the hyper power of the world. A hyper power is a state that dominates in every domain such as military, economy and culture. Not only America was the biggest military and   economic power, its consumer culture also became the dominant culture in the world.                                    

America has the largest economy in the world and spends more than any other country in the world on its military. America’s military budget is more than the combined budgets of the countries which are in the second, third and fourth place (China, India and Russia). However, America is slipping in both the economic as well as military fields. The coronavirus pandemic will hasten America’s relative decline vis-à-vis China and Russia.                                                                                                                                  

Even before the pandemic, in the economic field, there were clear trends of the rise of China and decline of America. We can look at the GDP, PPP, share in the world trade, global fortune 500 and the ten largest banks in the world. All of these parameters will confirm the trends of the rise of China and the decline of America. Even though America still leads in the GDP, China is catching up fast and soon going to surpass America. However, in the terms of the PPP, which compares the purchasing power of the two countries, China is already ahead of America. America’s share of the world trade has been decreasing while China’s share is increasing. America’s share of the world trade was 11.5% and China’s share was 12.4% in the year 2018. The Global Fortune 500 includes the largest companies of the world. For the first time in history, another country is now ahead of America; there are 121 American companies and 129 Chinese companies. Out of the ten largest banks in the world, four are Chinese and two are American.                                                                                                                                                                                   

America spends far more than any other country on the military. However, that does not necessarily make it militarily the strongest. Russia spends very little on its military compared to America. However, it has achieved and is maintaining its lead as far as the most advanced weaponry is concerned. Russia has the most advanced missile system, tanks and submarines. It has also developed weapons to shoot down any satellite in space. This capability gives it the ability to paralyze the computer system of any country in the world.                                                                                                                                                        

The Russian and the Chinese capabilities are mutually complementary. This makes their strategic relationship very strong. As long as the two countries stick together they are unbeatable. America and the western countries are trying very hard to draw a wedge between the two countries. However, they have not succeeded and are unlikely to succeed in the future. Both Russia and China understand that they cannot match America’s strength alone and have to join their forces to match the American strength.                                                                                                                                                                                                   

America sees China as its main adversary and is doing everything to contain and weaken China. At present, America is trying very hard to blame China for the coronavirus pandemic. America feels that this will help in its campaign to discredit and isolate China. America is also trying to dismantle the manufacturing base in China by inciting the multinational companies to move their operations from China to the other countries such as India and Vietnam. Japan has also joined in this task. It has allocated 2.2 billion dollars for this purpose. However, this is not an easy task. There are several obstacles in achieving this goal.                                                                                                                                              

 There are problems such as acquiring land and the bureaucratic hurdles, problems of finding equally developed infrastructure and social discipline. Moreover, China has now become the biggest consumer market in the world. It has already surpassed America in this field. Therefore, the companies will risk losing the biggest market for their products. All these efforts may prove a ploy to win the November Presidential election and are not very likely to hurt China. Moreover, any country which will start a trade war with China will risk hurting itself more than it can hurt China.                                                                    

It is very difficult if not impossible to reverse the trends of Rise of the East and decline of the West. The western capitalist system has already outlived its existence and cannot be saved in its present form. The only choice we have is whether the change from the present western dominated world to a multipolar world will be peaceful or there will be a World War. America should realize that unlike the first two World Wars it cannot win this one. Unlike the first two world wars in which America did not face destruction, this war will assured mutual destruction. I do not feel that the Americans are mentally prepared for such an eventuality. Many people in the world will agree that it is better that the transition of the present western dominated world to a post corona multipolar world should be peaceful.     

Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at sawrajsingh@hotmail.com.