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BCREA’s Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update Sees 6.5 percent Increase
“The outlook for the BC housing market is much brighter following a surprisingly strong recovery,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “We expect home sales will sustain this momentum into 2021, aided by record-low mortgage rates and a recovering economy.”
By DESIBUZZCanada Staff
VANCOUVER – The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2020 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update this week and it sees residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 6.5 per cent to 82,380 units this year, after recording 77,351 residential sales in 2019. MLS residential sales are forecast to increase 17.6 percent to 96,860 units in 2021.
“The outlook for the BC housing market is much brighter following a surprisingly strong recovery,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “We expect home sales will sustain this momentum into 2021, aided by record-low mortgage rates and a recovering economy.”
With home sales more than fully recovered and now above pre-COVID-19 levels, combined with a decline in the supply of resale listings driven by the pandemic, many markets are now seeing sharply rising average prices despite a weak provincial economy. We are forecasting the provincial MLS® average price to finish the year up 7.7 per cent and to increase a further 3.7 per cent in 2021.
The forecast comes after July 2020 sales saw an increase of 26.6 percent from July 2019. The average MLS residential price in BC was $770,810, a 12.9 percent increase from $682,702 recorded the previous year. Total sales dollar volume in July was $7.8 billion, a 43 per cent increase over 2019.
“The strong recovery in sales activity continued in July,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “Increased demand for more living space combined with an undersupplied market is producing significant upward pressure on home prices, particularly in the market for single-family homes.”
Active listings remain down significantly year-over-year, creating upward pressure on prices, though increased demand for single-family homes has somewhat skewed average prices in some markets.
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 8.4 per cent to $32.5 billion, compared with the same period in 2019. Residential unit sales were down 1.4 per cent to 43,718 units, while the average MLS^® residential price was up 10 per cent to $754,842.
