The most likely outcome of the present crisis in the Middle East will be decline of the American influence and a gain of influence for Russia and China. Russia is already gaining influence in the Middle East at the expense of America. This trend became clear after the Russian backed Syrian regime won the war and the American backed forces lost the war. Iran played a crucial role in the victory. This was a devastating blow for the American allies particularly for Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf allies all of them wanted Assad to meet the same fate as Gaddafi.                                                                                       

By Dr. Sawraj Singh

The most likely outcome of the present crisis in the Middle East will be decline of the American influence and a gain of influence for Russia and China. Russia is already gaining influence in the Middle East at the expense of America. This trend became clear after the Russian backed Syrian regime won the war and the American backed forces lost the war. Iran played a crucial role in the victory. This was a devastating blow for the American allies particularly for Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf allies all of them wanted Assad to meet the same fate as General Gaddafi.                                                                                                      

The Russia-China- Iran joint naval exercises further challenged America and its allies. I feel the present American act of killing the Iranian General had something to with those naval exercises. America wanted to reassure its allies that it can still do whatever it wants in the Middle East. However, this act may further weaken the American influence in the Middle East. Weakening of the American influence will lead to a gain of influence for Russia and China. I also feel that America will lose more than Iran. By getting entangled with Iran America is more likely to show its vulnerability and weaknesses rather than its strength. The American allies are likely to feel that they should try to make up with Russia and China.  

Countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia have tried to make up with Russia. Turkey has developed its relations with Russia in a multilateral fashion. It has signed an agreement with Russia to buy the S-400 missile system. A gas pipeline from Russia passes through Turkey. Bulgaria has shown interest in extension of this pipeline to Bulgaria. Russia has become the largest exporter of natural gas and oil to the European Union. Russia is regaining influence in Europe and the Middle East. Russia is likely to throw its weight behind Iran in this conflict and is also likely to play the role of a peace broker. This will further enhance Russian prestige in the Middle East.                                                                                                                              

Iran’s ability to hit the American military bases with missiles will also enhance Iran’s standing in the Middle East. The conflict between Iran and the US looks more like a draw match. However, when a conflict between a superpower and a small country ends in a draw then it will be seen as a victory of the smaller country. At present neither America nor Iran seems to escalate the conflict to a full blown war. Both countries seem to be showing restraint. Even though America is very powerful yet Iran seems to have more options to hurt the American interests. This makes them even in the practical terms.                   

India who initially chose to remain silent, has now offered to play a role as a peace maker. This move has been welcome by Iran. India has a lot to lose in case a war breaks out between the US and Iran. Iran is a very big source for India’s oil import. If a war breaks out in the Middle East then India has lot to lose. India should revive its non aligned status. Eventually India has to join Russia and China to change the present unipolar world in to a multipolar world. The shift of balance of power in the Middle East will be more conducive for a multi polar world order.   

Dr. Sawraj Singh, MD F.I.C.S. is the Chairman of the Washington State Network for Human Rights and Chairman of the Central Washington Coalition for Social Justice. He can be reached at sawrajsingh@hotmail.com.